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Danger and Opportunity

This post covers a lot of topics. Each topic could be elaborated into its own story. Here is a brief introduction so you do not get lost during the ride.

  • Our time at home gives us the opportunity to rethink education. Using it as a tool to embark on the opportunities rather than thinking about the jobs we do not have.

  • The edge of the rabbit hole of the financial and political crisis upon us. Covid-19 is not the crisis, rather it is the thing that brought our attention to the thing (if you know where to look).

  • The insight of markets and the perils of overconcentration.

Hopefully, we can free ourselves from groupthink and transition back to productivity via unbiased individuality and productive communication.

Unemployment and New Education

Many of us are stuck at home and some are now without a job. I know plenty of hard-working men and women who feel the economic boom since 2010, had left them behind. Even worse, those members just entering or re-entering the workforce with higher education and the massive amount of student loans are now s*** out of luck (SOL) as the US unemployment numbers eclipse 14%.

Thus, I propose diverting your attention from being unemployed and your present skill set to targeting education for employment. I am not proposing starting a new career or taking on hundreds of thousands of dollars in student loans. Rather, there are a lot of new, good resources to learn valuable skills. These platforms are either free or have very low premiums (such as membership).

For programming or learning about computers check out, Codeacademy. Brushing up on general education or exploring topics can be done on Khan Academy. These places have videos and teachers that are fun and walk through projects/problems with you. Of course, everybody knows about YouTube's plethora of Do It Yourself (DIY) information but its unsorted nature creates a lot of search waste.

Now is a good time to become more self-reliant as the economy begins to reshape itself. Despite what governments are telling you, you should not expect them to be part of the solution. I recognize that I provide no evidence for this statement, although I recommend you read Ben Hunt's work and visit his website, Epsilon Theory. He's done extensive research on the aforementioned topic.

The Edge of a Crisis Origin

Studying history is important. In my core area of study for the past three years has been investments. A lot of people are calling this the “Covid-19” crisis or crash. And these same people are expecting a “V” recovery. PLEASE do not be naïve, if anything given this unprecedented amount of ‘free’ time, take a break from your work, your shows, and study history.

While it may be worth writing a book about the “Fed” put, there is a long rabbit hole that starts at the turn of the century and leads to the top of the Great Crash of 1929. The polarizing political debate of what rescued America from the Great Depression continues the story. Although it is for another time, here is an interesting article that stipulates the end of WW2 brought about the end. Simply put, there are plenty of theories. Labeled 'conspiracy' or 'mainstream' information should not be overlooked or judged by its cover. Most interesting the conspiracy that the terrorist attack on September 11th, 2001 was an inside job, has it's own Wikipedia page. Or how about the attack on Pearl Harbor actually having minimal damage to the US Navy?

Anyways, without creating perjury or perpetuating conspiracy, I provide an example that compares the ‘.com’ crisis to present. As perhaps “Covid-19” is similar in nature to the tragic falling of the twin towers, in that IT brings to light the fragility of groupthink and the construct of our present system. We need to rethink our present system and return to the ‘checks and balance’ ideals that founded the United States.

Markets and Society

The chart below is the weekly NDX Index minus the IXIC Index. The NDX Index is the Nasdaq 100 companies or the largest 100 companies in the Index. In contrast, the IXIC is the Nasdaq composite index. Below that plot is the RSI (Relative Strength Index) of the plot. Which is typically used as an overbought/oversold measure. It uses the number of time periods and average moves. ‘Extended’ moves score above 70 or below a score of 30.

For me, a few interesting points and questions come to my mind after looking at this chart.

  • Markets have fractal nature, meaning characteristics that apply on one scale extend to a different scale. This chart demonstrates that wealth inequality is not limited to individuals. Inequality is present in companies.

  • What does that fact mean for countries? What has happened to the value of the land, labor, and capital of the populations of Turkey, Poland, Venezuela? The links are to various charts of those countries.

  • The RSI index plot indicates that over-concentration may not be over. We have a long way to go, the present ‘V’ recovery requires time. The March 16th liquidation did not do any meaningful damage to the accumulation trend of NDX over IXIC!

  • What does this chart say about financial and social stability?

The hope of the 1990’s and the “dotcom” was the democratization of information. This would lead to a more free and open society. Unfortunately, since the ‘rise’ of “Fake News,” it requires a lot of effort to separate knowledge from politicized information. The chart above indicates great comfort with centralized information. I am sure the Chinese people are comfortable with their Beijing centralized information. Written text cannot capture my level of sarcasm, it is present.

Be Compromising and Challenging, especially with Yourself

How much of you are working knowledge comes from one or two of FOX, CNBC, CNN, or MSNBC? Despite having a bias, we all do. I’m a staunch libertarian. Although, I see the fallacy of trying to do everything myself.

Furthermore, I understand the soundness of conservatism, it works. But regulation is required to protect the interest of the many. Rules, level the playing field, and allow the embracing of new ideas that lead to progress.

I can also sympathize with the progressives wanting to help everybody. Although the equal opportunity is not the same as equal outcome.

I highly recommend playing the devil's advocate in your own mind and look for news sources both counter to your opinion, and one’s counter to your own bias. Only then can we identify the areas of overreach and underrepresentation.

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